F1 2026 — Prediction Markets & Edge Detection

Next Race: Monaco Grand Prix

Round 6 · 2026-06-07 · Circuit de Monaco, Monte Carlo

Best Edge (Model)

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computing...

Biggest Overpriced

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market too high

Market Favorite

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Model Favorite

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Model vs Market — Race Winner

Edge Detection Table — Monaco Grand Prix

Driver	Model %	Market %	Edge	EV/$1	Kelly %	Signal

Championship Winner Market

Season-long championship odds from Polymarket ($153M+ volume)

Model vs Market — WDC Winner

Championship Edge Table

Driver	Model %	Market %	Edge	EV/$1	Kelly %	Signal

Methodology

How we detect edge and size positions

Edge Detection

Edge = P_model - P_market

Positive edge means our model assigns a higher probability than the market. If our model is better calibrated, this represents expected value.

Edge = P_model - P_market
EV = P_model × (1/P_market - 1) - (1 - P_model)
Signal: >+5% = Strong Buy, +2-5% = Buy, ±2% = Neutral, -2-5% = Sell, <-5% = Strong Sell

Kelly Criterion

Optimal bet sizing for maximizing long-run geometric growth:

f* = (p × b - q) / b

where:
  p = model probability
  q = 1 - p
  b = implied odds - 1 = (1/P_market) - 1

Kelly % = fraction of bankroll to wager. Half-Kelly (f*/2) is the practical standard — full Kelly is too volatile for most bankrolls.

Model Limitations

Our model uses current-season form only (5 races). It does not account for circuit-specific performance, weather, car upgrades, or team orders. The market aggregates thousands of informed opinions. Treat edge signals as research starting points, not trading recommendations.

Data Source

Market odds from Polymarket CLOB (Central Limit Order Book). Prices reflect real-money predictions from thousands of traders. Championship market: $153M+ volume. Race markets: $100K+ per race. Fetched live via the Gamma API at generation time.